A Global Realization Hit All at Once
Sometime over the last year, the world collectively woke up to a reality that had been building for decades:
We are consuming silver faster than we can replace it.
And when that realization hit, China, industry, and investors all reached for the same shrinking pile of ounces — at the same time.
Since early 2025, silver is up roughly 140%. After my spring auction last year, customers were genuinely shocked when silver was hammering at $50 per ounce. Fast-forward to early spring 2026, and silver is now at $140 per ounce.
So what drove these increases?
What Drove Silver’s Surge
1) A Physical Shortage
This isn’t a paper or futures story — it’s physical. Available silver inventories have been drawn down after years of supply deficits. There simply isn’t much slack left in the system.
2) Exploding Industrial Demand
Silver is no longer just a monetary or decorative metal. It’s essential infrastructure.
More than half of all newly mined silver is consumed by industry, including:
- Solar panels
- Electronics and semiconductors
- Medical equipment
- Military and aerospace applications
Silver is the best electrical conductor on Earth — there is no true substitute at scale.
3) China Tightening Supply
China has increasingly prioritized domestic silver use. By restricting exports and treating silver as a strategic material, less refined metal reaches global markets, forcing the rest of the world to compete for fewer ounces.
4) Interest Rates & Currency Concerns
As real interest rates weakened and inflation concerns lingered, silver regained its role as both an industrial metal and a monetary hedge — a rare and volatile combination.
5) Investment Demand Finally Woke Up
Silver always lags gold — until it doesn’t. Once gold reached new highs, investors rotated into silver for leverage. In a small market, that money moves prices fast.
6) The Gold-Silver Ratio Snapped
The gold-silver ratio had stretched to historically extreme levels of 80–90:1. Once it began to normalize, silver dramatically outperformed gold.
7) The Market Realized Silver Isn’t “Cheap”
Silver had long been priced like an abundant by-product. In reality:
- Much of it is used once and gone
- Recycling can’t scale fast enough
- New mine supply responds very slowly
The old assumptions broke — and prices adjusted violently.
Silver Is Being Used Up
It’s worth noting that an estimated 200–400 million ounces of silver every year is effectively unrecoverable under current recycling systems. While gold is hoarded, vaulted, and preserved, silver is consumed.
Even more surprising:
There is less investable silver above ground today than gold.
That fact alone challenges decades of conventional thinking.
What the Forecasts Say
Most forecasts now agree that silver prices are likely to remain elevated through 2026. Volatility is a given, but the structural forces behind silver’s re-pricing haven’t gone away.
What This Means for Collectors and Stackers
- Prices are likely to stay strong
- .999 fine silver is getting harder to source
- When it is available, dealers increasingly demand higher premiums over spot
On the selling side, conditions are just as unusual:
- Many dealers are backing away from aggressive buy prices
- Some are paying half of spot for sterling flatware — others aren’t buying at all
- Refineries are backlogged and taking longer to settle payments
It used to be that calls began with: “What are you paying?” Now, the first question is almost always: “Are you buying?”
Investors waiting to “buy the dip” are discovering a new reality:
When silver dips, dealers often stop selling — or raise premiums instead.
Final Thoughts
Silver is no longer a sleepy metal sitting in the shadow of gold. It’s volatile, scarce, essential, and increasingly strategic. The market is tight. Inventories are thin. The rules are changing in real time. It truly feels like the Wild West out there right now.
Enjoy the ride — and think in ounces.
